Enhancement of hybrid renewable energy systems control with neural networks applied to weather forecasting: the case of Olvio

P. Chatziagorakis, C.Elmasides, G.C. Sirakoulis, I. Karafyllidis, I. Andreadis, N. Georgoulas, D. Giaouris, A.I. Papadopoulos, C. Ziogou, D. Ipsakis, S. Papadopoulou, P. Seferlis, F. Stergiopoulos, S. Voutetaki.
2016. Neural Computing & Applications, 1-26. doi: 10.1007/s00521-015-2175-6

In this paper, an intelligent forecasting model, a recurrent neural network (RNN) with nonlinear autoregressive architecture, for daily and hourly solar radiation and wind speed prediction is proposed for the enhancement of the power management strategies (PMSs) of hybrid renewable energy systems (HYRES). The presented model (RNN) is applicable to an autonomous HYRES, where its estimations can be used by a central control unit in order to create in real time the proper PMSs for the efficient subsystems’ utilization and overall process optimization. For this purpose, a flexible network-based design of the HYRES is used and, moreover, applied to a specific system located on Olvio, near Xanthi, Greece, as part of Systems Sunlight S.A. facilities. The simulation results indicated that RNN is capable of assimilating the given information and delivering some satisfactory future estimation achieving regression coefficient from 0.93 up to 0.99 that can be used to safely calculate the available green energy. Moreover, it has some sufficient for the specific problem computational power, as it can deliver the final results in just a few seconds. As a result, the RNN framework, trained with local meteorological data, successfully manages to enhance and optimize the PMS based on the provided solar radiation and wind speed prediction and make the specific HYRES suitable for use as a stand-alone remote energy plant.

Keywords: Recurrent neural network, Solar radiation, Power management strategy, Hybrid renewable energy system